Weekly Mortgage Market Update: A Mid‑January Shift
We are officially moving into the second half of January 2026, and momentum in the housing market is arriving early. For many buyers who were waiting on the sidelines, the landscape is shifting from “wait and see” to “the window is opening.”
Where We Are Today
Mortgage rates have officially dipped below 6% for many borrowers, marking the lowest levels seen in nearly three years. Recent averages:
- 30-Year Fixed: ~5.99% – 6.11%
- 15-Year Fixed: ~5.36% – 5.52%
Easing inflation and increased MBS purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have injected liquidity into the market. As a result, median monthly payments have fallen about 5.5% year-over-year, giving buyers more flexibility.
Key Data Metrics: The Week Ahead
This week’s economic reports will shape where rates go next:
| Date | Metric/Report | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Jan 20 | ADP Employment Change | A cooling jobs market often leads to lower mortgage rates. |
| Wed, Jan 21 | Pending Home Sales | Measures homes under contract—an early indicator of buyer activity. |
| Thu, Jan 22 | Core PCE Index & GDP | The big one. Lower-than-expected PCE often triggers rate rallies. |
| Fri, Jan 23 | S&P Global Flash PMI | Reflects overall economic health; slowing conditions usually push yields down. |
Pro Tip for the Week
With rates hovering around the psychological 6% barrier, competition is heating up. Inventory is up about 20% year-over-year—giving buyers more options, but also more competition.
Bottom Line: Don’t let the pursuit of a “perfect” rate keep you from a great home. You can refinance a rate later—you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.
Payment Comparison: Today vs. Last Month
Here’s how much buyers save with today’s sub‑6% rates compared to the mid‑December 7.25% peak on a $350,000 loan:
| Metric | Last Month (7.25%) | Today (5.99%) | Monthly Savings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Principal & Interest | $2,388 | $2,096 | $292 |
| Annual Savings | — | — | $3,504 |
| Total Interest Paid | $509,680 | $404,560 | $105,120 |
The Hidden Impact: Purchasing Power
That $292 monthly savings is meaningful—but the real impact is in purchasing power. With the same monthly budget from December, a buyer can now afford a home about $48,000 more expensive.
Why This Matters Right Now
- The 6% Barrier: Sub‑6% rates are bringing buyers back into the market early. Applications are already up around 2.5%.
- Inventory is Moving: Lower rates are motivating previously “locked-in” sellers to list, gradually expanding supply.
All signs point to an early and active 2026 housing market—one where timing, preparation, and informed decisions matter more than ever.
