Weekly Mortgage Market Update: A Mid-January Shift
Happy Monday! We are officially moving into the second half of January 2026, and the “spring” momentum in the housing market is arriving early this year. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, the narrative is shifting from wait and see to the window is opening.
Here is everything you need to know about where we are today and what’s coming up this week.
Where We Are Today
The big headline this morning: Mortgage rates have officially dipped below the 6% mark for many borrowers.
After a year of stubborn volatility, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is now landing between 5.90% and 6.11%, depending on lender and APR inclusions. These are the lowest levels we’ve seen in nearly three years.
- Current Average (30-Year Fixed): ~5.99% – 6.11%
- Current Average (15-Year Fixed): ~5.36% – 5.52%
- The Driver: Cooling inflation data combined with recent government directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage-backed securities, adding liquidity to the market.
The result? Monthly housing payments are falling. Recent data shows the median monthly payment is down roughly 5.5% year over year, giving buyers meaningful breathing room each month.
Key Data Metrics: The Week Ahead
Today is a federal holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), so bond markets are closed. Once markets reopen, the rest of the week is packed with data that could drive rates even lower.
- Tuesday, Jan 20 – ADP Employment Change: Labor market health remains a major driver for Fed policy.
- Wednesday, Jan 21 – Pending Home Sales: A real-time look at buyer demand and contracts signed.
- Thursday, Jan 22 – Core PCE Index & GDP: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A cooler reading could spark another rate rally.
- Friday, Jan 23 – S&P Global Flash PMI: A pulse check on overall economic momentum.
Pro Tip for the Week
With rates hovering near the psychological 6% barrier, buyer competition is beginning to pick up. Inventory is up about 20% compared to last year, meaning buyers have more options—but they are no longer alone.
Bottom Line: Don’t let a “perfect” rate stop you from buying a great home. You can refinance a rate later—but you can’t refinance a house you didn’t buy.
Payment Comparison: Today vs. Last Month
Based on a 30-year fixed mortgage with a $350,000 loan amount:
- Last Month (7.25%): $2,388/month
- Today (5.99%): $2,096/month
- Monthly Savings: $292
- Annual Savings: $3,504
- Total Interest Saved: Approximately $105,120 over the life of the loan
The Hidden Impact: Purchasing Power
That $292 monthly savings does more than lower payments—it increases buying power.
With the same $2,388 monthly budget from December, buyers can now afford a home worth roughly $48,000 more. In today’s market, that often means the difference between a fixer-upper and a move-in-ready home.
Why This Matters Right Now
- The 6% Barrier: Falling below this level is a major psychological trigger. Mortgage applications are already up roughly 2.5%.
- Inventory Is Moving: Sellers who were locked into ultra-low rates are finally listing, increasing supply.
The quiet winter market is ending early. Buyers who act now may find better choices—and better leverage—before competition fully heats up.
