Weekly Mortgage Commentary: CPI Preview, Housing Trends, and Rate Strategy (Jan 12, 2026)

January 21, 2026 | Jerry McMyne

Weekly Mortgage Commentary – Monday, January 12, 2026

Fed News

Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell regarding past testimony on building renovations. Powell claims the move is political retaliation for not cutting rates fast enough.

CPI Preview (Tomorrow)

  • Significance: Critical data release.
  • Headline: Expected to remain flat or decline 0.1% YoY.
  • Core: Expected to remain flat or increase 0.1% YoY.

Housing Data (Realtor.com)

  • Inventory: Up 12% YoY, but still down 5.5% vs. pre-pandemic levels.
  • The Divide: Inventory is surging in TX/FL (causing price pressure) but remains 40–60% below normal in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic (fueling appreciation).
  • Value: Median listing price per sq. ft. is up 2% and rising steadily.

The Week Ahead

  • Tue: ADP Employment, CPI, New Home Sales.
  • Wed: PPI, Retail Sales, Existing Home Sales.
  • Thu: Initial Jobless Claims.

Technicals & Strategy

  • MBS: Trading between support at 100.12 and a ceiling at 100.6.
  • 10-Year Treasury: Yields tested and held at the 4.20% resistance line. Watch the 1pm auction today.
  • Guidance: Begin the week FLOATING mortgage rates.
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