Stocks are lower and Mortgage Bonds are slightly higher to start what could be a pivotal week in the markets.
All Eyes on Jackson Hole
The Jackson Hole Symposium begins Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking Friday. After several pauses, Powell is expected to signal a likely rate cut on September 17, while keeping a cautious “wait and see” tone. Markets currently price an 85%+ chance of a 25 bp cut. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter) favored a “move and wait” approach—cut in September, then reassess.
Homebuyer Insights – The Cotality Report
- 63% of Gen Z buyers say they don’t feel informed about the real estate market—an opportunity for lenders to use data tools for education.
- Only 1 in 3 buyers would work exclusively with their lender; trust is the key driver.
- 71% prefer a human touch alongside tech tools, underscoring the value of personal guidance.
What’s Ahead This Week
- Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index
- Tuesday: Housing Starts & Permits
- Wednesday: Mortgage Applications, 20-Year Auction, Fed Minutes
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales
- Friday: Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium
Technical Picture
- Mortgage Bonds have held above a key floor at 101.76 for 10 straight sessions.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is range-bound between 4.29% (support) and 4.33% (resistance). A break below 4.29% could target ~4.20%.
Bottom Line
Bonds are holding their ground, but Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole may set the tone for rates into the fall.
Recommendation: Begin the week floating.
